Thanks Shazear, I'm impressed by your responsiveness ;-)
I spent a little time poking around in Rawr, Recount, and World of Logs to look for things that might be directly comparable. It's all a little more messy than I'd like, but here's some items that might make for valuable diagnostics:
1) Recount: Healing Done for Death Strike. For example in my last Al'Akir attempt from last night it reports 19 Death Strikes with average heal of 10.8K. The 10.8K seems like the # that you'd most want a direct comparable for in Rawr. I
get a very similar number in World of Logs so that's encouraging. If the Rawr # was a lot different we'd have our answer right there.
2) Recount: Overhealing done for Death Strike. This is puzzling - in that same attempt it shows 4 Death Strikes with average overheal of 10.8K. Either I really did have 19 that were fully used and 4 that were fully overheals, or there's some
measurement issue. I suspect the latter. World of Logs reports a 17.4% overheal which is similar to the 4/(4+19). Not sure what to make of either datapoint but in any case it would be interesting for Rawr to show its estimate of what
% of the Death Strike heal was effective vs. overheal.
3) Recount: Healing Done for Blood Shield. Unfortunately here the #s reported are for individual hits against the shield, vs. the total strength of each shield. (ie in the encounter above 35 hits of 4.9K.) This is hard to use on its own.
Perhaps more valuable would be comparing the total healed with Blood Shield vs. the total healed with Death Strike. In comparing the Rawr % vs the Recount % (which would have to be manually computed unfortunately), you'd get a sense for if Rawr's assumptions
about DS overheal or Blood Shield use vs waste (because it dropped off or was overwritten) were off.
4) Recount: Damage Taken: Summary (click on the magnifying glass, then "click for incoming".) This breaks damage taken into schools. Ie in my encounter it shows 797K melee vs. 818K nature (making this an example of a fight where the
physical vs. magic distinction is extremely relevant.) It also provides the miss/dodge/parry percent for the melee, and the percent resisted for the magic. All of these percentages seem like items that could be directly comparable between Rawr
and Recount and each of which, if there was a significant delta, could explain why one model was reporting very different results from another. Recount also provides total absorbed for both magic and physical, but this strikes me as risky: the
amount absorbed will vary drastically if you have a discipline priest healing you or not and my guess is if you tried to provide a comparable in Rawr you'd be fending off bug reports about it for the rest of your life.
5) World of Logs: Buffs gained: Includes an uptime % which could also be instructive to compare against Rawr's model. Ie especially for Blade Barrier, Bone Shield, Vampiric Blood, DRW, WotN, IF.
I hope this helps. In the end it could turn out that only one or two of these are what really cracks the puzzle but unfortunately its hard to know which ahead of time. I personally suspect the physical vs. magic distinction (data point #4) is
a huge component in what potentially makes mastery superior vs avoidance.